Total federal debt crossed $40 trillion in mid-August, and Ray Dalio thinks the United States could face a debt crisis within one to five years.

The Bridgewater Associates founder also told investors what he would hold before it arrives.

What Bessent’s buyback signals to Dalio

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC his team would buy back government bonds, with purchases likely to top $4 billion. Buybacks are a routine tool for managing cash and liquidity, but Dalio sees this expansion into long-dated debt during a spike in yields as more worrying.

He also pointed to multiyear highs in long-term Treasury yields and Japan pulling back from U.S. bonds. Together, he wrote, they mark an “inflection point” in government finances.

The arithmetic behind the warning

Dalio says the government is spending about 40% more than it takes in, with the July deficit topping $432 billion. He also said that if the country were a business, debt service would run roughly $11 trillion a year, close to 200% of revenue. Total federal debt has now passed $40 trillion.

Bessent offered a calmer view, saying the deficit had likely peaked. Dalio remains skeptical, pointing to spending that is mandatory or politically difficult to cut. That disagreement reflects a broader debate over whether the debt is manageable or a genuine threat to worry about.

Dalio’s fix is fewer bonds and more gold

Dalio said investors should underweight debt assets and hold as much as 10% to 15% of a portfolio in gold, plus “a bit” of bitcoin. His best estimate for a crisis was “three years, give or take two.”

That does not mean retirees should copy his allocation. Gold can diversify a portfolio, but it pays no income and can be volatile. A low-cost gold fund or ETF is the simplest way to add exposure. A self-directed gold IRA is another route, but it comes with more rules and fees, so doing it without getting burned matters.

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Prepare for the worst and hope for the best

Dalio is pointing to real fiscal pressures, but his timing is still a forecast and his allocation will not fit everyone.

Long-term Treasury yields are worth watching, but they can rise for many reasons, including inflation, Fed expectations and heavier borrowing. A rise is not proof of a crisis. Dalio’s warning is a reason to review your concentration and interest-rate risk before markets force the issue.

If you have over $100,000 in savings, now may be a good time to get advice from a pro. SmartAsset offers a free service that matches you to a vetted, fiduciary advisor, legally bound to act in your best interests, in under five minutes.