Vehicles that get less than 15 miles per gallon lost 15% of their wholesale value between January and September 2026. Excluding fully electric vehicles, models rated 40 mpg or better, led by hybrids, gained almost 10% over the same stretch.

Those are auction prices, what dealers pay before setting a sticker, and the overall measure just fell. Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell to 205.9 in September, 0.6% below a year earlier. It was the first time in 2026 that wholesale values slipped below year-ago levels.

For shoppers, the change is uneven. The vehicle that looks like a bargain may cost the most to own.

Thirsty trucks and SUVs are taking the hit

“Consumers are trading down, from new to used and full size to compact,” Jonathan Gregory, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, told Car Dealership Guy News. In Cox’s third-quarter report, he said vehicles in the 15 to 19 mpg range were down almost 9% since January, while those getting 35 to 39 mpg were up 3.7%.

That spread cuts both ways. A full-size SUV may cost less than it did in the spring, but the savings can disappear at the pump. A hybrid that costs more upfront may pay some of that back in fuel. The federal fuel economy site lets you compare estimated annual fuel costs model by model before you decide which trade-off fits your driving.

Demand for hybrids keeps climbing, and unlike gas guzzlers, the most efficient models have been gaining value.

More 3-year-old cars are on the way

Lease returns, which bottomed out in the first quarter, are picking up. Cox projects off-lease supply rising from about 190,000 vehicles a month in the first half of 2026 to about 220,000 a month in the second half.

Leases commonly run about three years, so these are usually late-model cars. Some may still have part of their original factory warranty. Ask the dealer for the in-service date and remaining coverage, then confirm it with the automaker using the vehicle identification number.

Cox also cut its forecast and now expects its index to finish 2026 up about 0.2% from a year earlier, down from the 2% gain it projected in July. “Taken together, we’re entering Q4 with our antennas up,” said Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive’s chief economist.

Checks before you sign

Every used car on a dealer lot must display a Buyers Guide. If it says “As Is – No Dealer Warranty,” the dealer will not pay for problems after the sale. The Federal Trade Commission also notes that a vehicle history report is not a substitute for an independent inspection, and a mechanic’s repair estimate can give you room to negotiate the price.

Run the VIN through the federal recall lookup to see whether any safety recalls are still open. Model-year complaint records can reveal reliability problems a test drive will not.

Price the insurance before you commit, too. Premiums can vary widely from one model to the next, and the cheaper vehicle to buy isn’t always the cheaper one to insure.

Unlike other sites that sell your data, Insurify lets you compare real-time quotes side by side without the spam. It is fast, secure, and rated 4.7 stars on Trustpilot. It takes minutes to check, and it costs you nothing. Compare quotes before you buy.

Where the leverage sits

Wholesale values are the cost side of a dealer’s math, and a dealer who paid less at auction may have more room to bargain. Gas-hungry trucks and SUVs are where wholesale prices have fallen the most, making them the best place to push for a lower price, as long as the fuel bill still fits your budget.